Estonia

Analysis

Parliamentary elections take place in March 2019:

• The 15-year-long right-wing government, led by the Reform party, fell in November 2016 and now looks to regain its position. At the same time, the left-wing led by the Centre party tries to remain in power;
• Government coalition has had to replace 8 ministers in 1.5 years.

Political powers:

• Two major parties Pro Patria and the Social Democratic Party have begun to lose a significant portion of their popularity. Pro Patria due to going against its right-wing basis; SDP due to their paternalistic policies;
• Conservative People’s Party of Estonia (EKRE) has seen a growth in support. The far-right national-conservative party, has established itself as the third most popular party (from 8% in Dec, 2016 to around 20% in Aug, 2018).
• The results of the August polls are the highest EKRE has ever ranked in a survey commissioned by Estonian Public Broadcasting.

New political movements

• Estonia 200: a yet-to-be-party that is currently in its pre-foundation phase;
• State Reform Foundation: a group of entrepreneurs is to present a detailed reform plan for the governance structure of the state.

Key election promises so far:

1. Estonian Centre Party: raise pensions , emphasis on the elderly;
2. Reform Party: €500 income tax exemption for everyone, reversal of alcohol excise raises;
3. Social Democratic Party: free care homes for elderly

It is hard to predict the results of the European Parliament elections until after the results of the national elections in March.