1.Good turnout adds democratic legitimacy:
turnout passed the symbolic 50% mark, an 8% increase on 2014. Calls to get out the vote, echoed by many business leaders, clearly worked and young voters in particular responded.

2.Only a Rainbow Coalition will be able to command a comfortable majority:
the “Green wave” might not have materialised across the whole of Europe, but they now look part of any pro-EU centre deal that will require the weakened EPP and Socialists to work with the rejuvenated Liberals and Greens. Together they should command two-thirds of the House and deliver the stable majority needed to thwart the influence of the extremes. Without the Greens, EPP/SD/ALDE can only command 58% which probably won’t be enough to secure a comfortable majority.

3.Green wave surprise of the night and with a coherent and focused programme they are likely to make their mark in the next legislative term:
Green gains in Germany and France saw the Group reach the top end of its ambitions with 70 seats and they will look to influence the EU’s future priorities and demand positions of influence. Green MEPs have consistently punched above their weight thanks to hard-working, diligent members who know how to work the system. Compared to other groups, they are looking coherent and focused.

4.The centre-right (EPP) and centre-left (S&D) are no longer in the driving seat and will have to adapt to a new reality of compromise with other parties:
the two traditional groups didn’t just fall below 50% for the first time, as expected, but ended up with a combined total of only 44%. Their days of sharing out top jobs between them are over and they’ll need to adapt to the new reality of compromising with the Liberals and Greens to win majorities. The Socialists dramatic fall in Germany was offset by good showings in Spain and Italy and the gap with the EPP is smaller than expected. More reason for the EPP to want to keep Orban on board.

5.ALDE +++ in search of a name and cohesion:
the Greens’ relative cohesion contrasts markedly with the new centre Liberal Group whose working name of ALDE+Renaissance+USR Plus indicates how much this is an untested coalition of newcomers, including former Romanian Commissioner Dacian Ciolos’ new USR party. There will be tough internal talks ahead to ensure their new strength – passing the symbolic 100 seat mark- is not diluted by internal wrangling. However, they will no longer accept being treated as the junior partner and will expect jobs and influence to match their increased numbers.

6.Policy priorities will reflect Liberal/Green gains:
the candidate for  Commission President will need to do their homework on the respective Green and Liberal/Renaissance manifestos. Expect climate action, fair taxation, a more assertive trade policy (ie sign up to Paris) and the spotlight to fall on transparency and lobbying. French Greens have already called for citizens committees to hold Brussels to account.

7.Populists do well but no breakthrough:
As expected the far-right saw impressive results in France and Italy, with Le Pen recording a symbolic victory over Macron (even though she actually lost a seat) and Salvini romping home in Italy. Poor results in Germany, Denmark, Netherlands and Spain will have dampened any thoughts of a major breakthrough or dreams of a far-right super group. Despite the headlines, their influence on the day-to-day operation of the parliament and its committees will remain limited.

8.Weber’s presidency hopes in trouble:
Although the EPP emerged as the largest group yet again, they are weakened by the loss of 40 seats and will need to do some hard bargaining if they are to find a majority for Weber in the European Council as well as the Parliament. EP Group leaders will meet on Tuesday to demand negotiations with Donald Tusk to ensure EU leaders don’t run ahead with the Commission nomination process without consulting them. The European Council is hoping to agree a nomination by its next meeting on 20-21 June – don’t hold your breath!

9.Brexit just became even more complicated:
the combination of 29 mini-Farage’s (plus the man himself) and a more hard line Tory Prime Minister, will concentrate the minds of EU leaders on how they can possibly avoid, in President Macron’s words, the UK situation “polluting” the EU’s future agenda. Brexit MEPs will make a nuisance of themselves but have little impact. If the UK does leave at the end of October and the EP reverts to its revised size of 705 MEPs, the big winners are France and Spain with 5 seats each – so more seats for Le Pen and Spanish Socialists.
10.Casualties in Greece and Italy on election night:
Greece was the first country to signal that the election results would lead to a snap general election, probably at the end of June, that could see the centre-right New Democracy replace Syriza – and get to nominate the Greek Commissioner. Italy may also follow suit as the 5 Star Movement on 17% slip further behind their coalition partners, the League on 34%. Can Salvini resist the chance to rule alone?